Interconnection between Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation: Reality or Myth?
December 1, 2011
Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin and Sergey Oznobishchev
Despite the unique character of the NPT in terms of the list of parties it includes, in the first decade of the 21st century the prospects for non-proliferation have caused increasing concerns of the global community and policy-makers in most of the world’s countries. The next stage in proliferation, provided that it gains momentum, will not only cause exponential growth of the nuclear threat, it will make, as a result of the synergy of many factors, the use of nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future virtually inevitable. Progress towards further arms reductions and limitations may perceivably improve the situation and provide conditions and incentives for strengthening non-proliferation regime. The aim of shutting down proliferation channels may be attained through raising the effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards, improving export controls, strict formalization of the procedure of withdrawal from the Treaty and increasing its political significance, bringing into force and the conclusion of a number of multilateral treaties designed to serve as 'barriers' to violations of the Treaty and the withdrawal from it.
Russia and the Dilemmas of Nuclear Disarmament (Russian)
December 1, 2011
Small Nuclear Forces: Five Perspectives
December 1, 2011
Royal United Services Institute
Malcolm Chalmers, Andrew Somerville and Andrea Berger
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a partner of the Nuclear Security Project, released a new report called “Small Nuclear Forces: Five Perspectives”. Supported by NTI, the report focuses on nuclear restraint and stability at low numbers from the perspectives of five middle nuclear powers.
Reducing Nuclear Risks in Europe: A Framework for Action
November 17, 2011
This new NTI report is designed to help develop an approach to reduce nuclear risks in Europe and contribute to NATO's Deterrence and Defense Posture Review. The collection of papers identifies policy and force structure options open to NATO members and aims to promote dialogue and new thinking on several key issues and questions, both within NATO and with Russia. Senator Nunn's essay outlines 10 specific steps for NATO to consider -- at the core of "10 for 2012" is a NATO commitment to deepening consultations with Russia, including a new dialogue designed to increase "warning and decision time" for leaders. In addition, NATO should plan for further reductions and consolidation of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. The target of completing consolidation to the United States should be within five years, with the final timing and pace determined by broad developments with Russia.
The Dangers of Denial: Nuclear Weapons in China-India Relations
October 1, 2011
The Lowy Institute for International Policy
Fiona Cunningham and Rory Medcalf
In this Lowy Institute Analysis supported by the Nuclear Security Project, Research Associate Fiona Cunningham and International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf warn of growing security risks in the relationship between Asia’s nuclear-armed rising powers China and India. An asymmetry of capabilities and threat perceptions is helping to drive these dangers. The authors call for a strategy stability dialogue to begin between China and India, embedded in a relationship of greater mutual respect, to ensure that possible future confrontations do not involve nuclear threats or misjudgments.